The study concludes that both China and New
Zealand will benefit from an FTA.
Both economies will expand, as will bilateral
trade, if immediate, comprehensive and reciprocal elimination of trade
barriers is achieved between China and New Zealand.
New Zealand exports of goods and services to
China between 2007 and 2027 are expected to grow on average between
NZ$260 million and $400 million a year.
Chinese exports of goods and services to New
Zealand between 2007 and 2027 are expected to grow on average between
NZ$55 million and $100 million a year.
In percentage terms, this equates to New Zealand's
exports to China increasing by between 20 and 39% above what would have
been achieved if an FTA had not been negotiated. China's exports
to New Zealand are expected to be between 5 and 11% higher over the
twenty year period.
The study notes the complementarities that
exist between the Chinese and New Zealand economies and does not
identify any major problems standing in the way of a free trade
The study concludes that an FTA will deliver
positive benefits across both economies, but notes that some sectors in
both China and New Zealand might face some adjustment challenges and
recommends that these be taken into account in negotiations.
It recommends that negotiations start as soon
as possible and cover goods, services and investment.
This recommendation has been agreed by both
Governments. When they met in Santiago on November 19 2004, Prime
Minister Helen Clark and Chinese President Hu Jintao announced that
negotiations would begin as quickly as possible.
A wide range of non-tariff measures is
identified as affecting trade on top of tariff barriers, which can be
quite high in some product areas. Likewise a range of services and
investment barriers is also identified.
The importance of sustainable development -
including labour and environment issues for both Governments - is
highlighted in the study. Specific outcomes are envisaged.
On top of the barriers identified, the study
also covers capacity building, Customs facilitation, e-commerce,
intellectual property, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, SME
cooperation, technical regulations and standards, temporary
entry/mobility of business people, trade and investment promotion,
competition policy and government procurement.