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Executive Summary
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) economy continues to rapidly grow and diversify, as the government works to shift from a labour-intensive economy to one driven by knowledge and technology.
In October, the IMF revised its 2025 GDP growth projection to 4.8% (up from 4% in April 2025). Growth is projected to accelerate further to 5% in 2026, belying global trends.
This is being driven by strong non-hydrocarbon sectoral growth, especially in logistics, technology, tourism and financial services, and OPEC+ production increases. The UAE’s non-oil trade also continues to grow at a record pace, increasing 24% year on year in the same period. Trade with Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) partners were a particular highlight, with UAE exports to its then-ten ‘in force’ CEPA partners tripling in H1 2025 compared to the same periods in 2022 and 2021.
Positioned between Europe, Africa, and Asia, the UAE serves as a crucial gateway for New Zealand to the region and beyond. The UAE Government continues to prioritise efforts to become a major and reliable trading partner, and a gateway to facilitate international trade flows.
The New Zealand - UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) entered into force on 28 August 2025. The CEPA, New Zealand’s first free trade agreement in the region, plays directly to Kiwi strengths, with Emirati consumers actively seeking premium, sustainable and trusted products and services: for which New Zealand is globally renowned.
To access further guidance and support in leveraging the opportunities arising from the CEPA, exporters can connect with NZTE. NZTE has published and is actively publishing a range of research reports, articles, and other resources to support exporters that stand to benefit from the CEPA across multiple sectors. Refer to the case studies below for additional insights.
Report
UAE economic update
In October 2025, the IMF raised its forecast for UAE growth to 4.8% this year, up from 4% in April, citing stronger non-oil activity and higher hydrocarbon exports as OPEC+ boosts output. The fund’s projection is slightly below the UAE Central Bank’s 2025 forecast, released a week earlier, of 4.9%. Growth is projected to accelerate further to 5% in 2026, belying global trends. The fund expects the two largest emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai to post economic growth of around 6% and 3.4% respectively in 2025.
The UAE’s non-oil trade enjoyed record growth in the first half (H1) of 2025, growing at a record 24% year-on-year to approximately AED 1.73trillion (NZD807bn) in H1 2025. UAE Prime Minister (and Ruler of Dubai) Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum singled out trade, finance and insurance, manufacturing, construction and real estate as the biggest contributors to non-oil GDP.
Specific Emirati efforts to expand the tourism, construction and financial service sectors continue to pay off, with major Dubai infrastructure projects such as the USD35bn (NZD60bn) Al Maktoum International Airport expansion (set to replace Dubai International Airport from 2032), and the relaunched Palm Jebel Ali development further supporting economic growth. Large scale cultural investments such as teamLab Phenomena (opened in 2025), the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi (set to open in 2026) and Disneyland Abu Dhabi (thought to open between 2030-33) are expected to further strengthen Abu Dhabi’s efforts to become a cultural capital for tourism.
While largely optimistic, the IMF did warn that housing costs, particularly in Dubai, will form the main source of price and affordability pressures. Though the UAE, as an interconnected global hub, remains vulnerable to regional and global events, its fiscal and external surpluses are expected to provide significant buffers against adverse shocks.
Emirati fiscal surpluses also continue to flow onto its sovereign wealth funds, with the UAE ranked third in the world for sovereign investments in mid-2025 with USD2.49 trillion (NZD4.28 trillion) in holdings, behind only the United States and China. Abu Dhabi state-owned Mubadala and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority have also been ranked as the most and second-most active SWF spenders in the calendar year up until September 2025, with an estimated USD17.4 billion (NZD 30 billion) and USD 9.6 billion (NZD 16.5 billion) respectively of investments.
The IMF also recognised the UAE’s ongoing efforts to grow its resilience and support diversification through concluding bilateral free trade agreements, known as Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs). The UAE’s increased trade with its CEPA partners was particularly notable, with bilateral trade with India and Türkiye growing 34% and 41% respectively compared to H1 2024.
By the end of H1 2025, UAE exports to the ten countries with ‘in force’ CEPAs had increased by three times the exports recorded in 2022 and 2021 and exceeded four times the exports in 2019. As at 8 October, 13 have now entered into force (with New Zealand, Malaysia and Australia coming into force after H1 2025).
The UAE and NZ
New Zealand exports to the UAE are increasing, and it is now our 17th largest export market. New Zealand exported NZD1.35 bn of goods and services to the UAE in the year to June 2025, growing 27.5% compared to YE June 2022. This economic relationship is underpinned by a strong political relationship.
The New Zealand – UAE CEPA entered into force on 28 August 2025, expanding New Zealand’s free trade agreement network into the Middle East for the first time. Kiwi exporters can now benefit from a range of benefits, including:
- New Zealand producers have the best-available access to the UAE market, with 99% of New Zealand goods exports able to access the market duty-free – including all New Zealand’s dairy, red meat, horticultural and industrial products immediately from entry into force. The CEPA’s tariff eliminations are forecast to deliver NZD42 million a year for Kiwi exporters in tariff savings alone.
- A package of trade-facilitative rules that will ensure exporters can easily take advantage of the tariff preferences, as well as on digital trade, non-tariff barriers, intellectual property, and competition, complementing the market access outcomes.
- The provision of transparent, non-discriminatory rules for our services exporters that will ensure a level playing field. Commitments on key services sectors of interest for New Zealand, including professional services, education, and audio-visual and gaming sectors, will ensure exporters receive no less favourable treatment to domestic UAE companies, and in many cases better treatment than that afforded to other foreign service suppliers.
- Significant opportunities to enhance cooperation across areas including agriculture and sustainable energy, aviation, and maritime sectors.
- A Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) concluded in conjunction with the CEPA that promotes and protects investment while ensuring the right to regulate is protected. Consistent with New Zealand’s existing policy settings, the Agreement does not contain Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) provisions. The BIT will enter into force later in 2025.
- Provisions that reflect the opportunities for Māori in the agreement, including the Treaty of Waitangi exception and a dedicated Indigenous Peoples Economic and Trade Cooperation chapter.
- A chapter on Trade and Sustainable Development to promote the interests of women and protect labour rights and climate change laws and regulations. This is consistent with New Zealand’s long-standing trade and environment and trade and labour frameworks.
More information on the NZ-UAE CEPA can be found here.
NZTE is actively publishing a range of resources to support exporters that stand to benefit from the CEPA across multiple sectors. Two research reports were recently completed on the red meat and fruit sectors; their case study highlights are below.
Case study #1: Red Meat in the UAE
Key takeaways
- The UAE has strong demand for red meat, with a heavy reliance on imports. Despite this, New Zealand plays a minor role with market share of only 1% of sheep meat and 3% of bovine meat, suggesting plenty of room to grow.
- UAE bovine and sheep meat imports at 10-year highs. Bovine meat imports have nearly tripled since 2015, while sheep meat has lifted by 40%. Beef is an everyday home staple, while lamb is eaten more on special occasions.
- Country of origin is very important. While quality is by far the number one priority for UAE consumers, country of origin ranks second.
- Almost all of those surveyed eat meat at least weekly. 24% of people eat red meat daily, and 70% weekly.
Consumer preferences
- New Zealand meat has a good reputation in the UAE. However, it trails Australia, the UAE and Pakistan in perceived quality. New Zealand meat brands must communicate their strengths and focus on differentiation.
- New Zealand meat has a good brand familiarity and high consumption. 87% of UAE red meat consumers surveyed have tried New Zealand meat, and 60% consumed it in the past month.
- Local meat is preferred. 46% of those surveyed favour meat produced in the UAE, while 26% prefer imported meat, and 27% have no preference. This might suggest local meat is seen as fresher or more familiar.
- Very few consumers buy frozen meat. Some buy both frozen and chilled, but 44% of consumers exclusively buy chilled meat.
For more information, check out the full market research survey on myNZTE(external link).
Case Study #2: Fruit in the UAE
Key takeaways
- Fruit from New Zealand is well-regarded in the UAE, rated as the first or second most preferred market of origin for many fruits, including kiwifruit, apples, blueberries, strawberries and avocados, among others.
- Consumers will pay a premium for New Zealand fruit because of its reputation. Most consumers surveyed think of New Zealand fruit as high quality, tasty, nutritious and having the ideal ripeness. 75% of UAE consumers are willing to pay more for it.
- Consumers don’t strongly connect New Zealand fruit with being affordable, lasting well on the shelf or having the ideal texture. If producers build a strong reputation in these areas, they can stand out more against competitors.
Consumer preferences
- Consumers in the UAE market are frequent purchasers of fresh fruit. Most households buy 1-4 kg weekly, emphasising the importance of freshness.
- Apples and bananas are core staples, while mangoes and dates are popular for special occasions.
- Qualities most valued by consumers – taste, quality, nutritional value, appearance, ideal ripeness – are what New Zealand fruit is already known for. Producers therefore have a strong advantage in the UAE market.
For more information, check out the full market research survey of fruit consumers on myNZTE(external link).
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This information released in this report aligns with the provisions of the Official Information Act 1982. The opinions and analysis expressed in this report are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the views or official policy position of the New Zealand Government. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the New Zealand Government take no responsibility for the accuracy of this report.
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