Weekly Global Report:
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Domestic
RBNZ increases the Official Cash Rate
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased the Official Cash Rate(external link) by 25 basis points to 2.5% on 8 July 2026. The Monetary Policy Committee said inflation remains above target and that, despite easing energy prices, medium-term inflation pressures remain uncertain.
The Bank noted that New Zealand’s economic recovery had lost momentum during the June quarter due to higher energy costs but is expected to resume in the September quarter as those effects fade. The Committee signalled that further withdrawal of monetary stimulus may be required if inflation pressures persist, highlighting the ongoing balance between restoring price stability and supporting growth.
Prime Minister of India visits New Zealand
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 10–11 July visit to Auckland—the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister in 40 years—resulted in a significant upgrade of bilateral ties. Prime Ministers Modi and Luxon elevated the relationship to a Strategic Partnership(external link) and endorsed an India–New Zealand Strategic Partnership: Roadmap to 2030(external link).
The leaders agreed to work toward doubling two-way trade in goods and services to NZ$7 billion by 2030 and committed to the early entry into force and implementation of the recently signed India–New Zealand FTA. During the visit, senior Indian and New Zealand business leaders also engaged in sector specific roundtables, highlighting areas where New Zealand sees immediate potential in the Indian market. Sport was also a prominent part of the visit, with a high-performance sporting showcase a key programme element, and collaboration and sporting celebrations announced for later this year.
Additional outcomes included cooperation on customs facilitation, tourism, agriculture, maritime security and defence, reflecting a substantial modernisation of the India-New Zealand relationship.
International
IMF revises Global Economic Outlook
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update(external link), projecting global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. The IMF noted that the global economy is being shaped by opposing forces: weaker growth from geopolitical conflict and higher energy costs, offset by stronger investment associated with artificial intelligence and technology sectors.
The IMF also warned that global disinflation has stalled, raising its inflation forecast for 2026 and highlighting risks from renewed conflict, supply chain disruption, and trade fragmentation. The assessment suggests that international economic conditions are likely to remain uncertain for trade-dependent economies such as New Zealand.
Australia introduces Trade Agreement Consultation Legislation
The Australian Government recently introduced the Trade and Investment Agreements (Consultation) Bill 2026(external link). The legislation establishes a formal framework for consultation and review processes relating to future free trade agreements and major trade negotiations.
The measure aims to increase transparency around trade policy development and may influence how Australia negotiates and manages future trade agreements in the region.
Upcoming Events and Webinars
ASEAN–New Zealand Vision Fund open for applications
The ASEAN-New Zealand Vision Fund (Vision Fund) is a five-year, NZ$25 million contestable fund designed to achieve impactful regional development outcomes in support of ASEAN 2045: Our Shared Future and ASEAN-New Zealand Plan of Action 2026-2030, under the four pillars of Peace, Prosperity, People, and Planet.
The Vision Fund’s point of difference is the emphasis on ASEAN partnerships: to ensure initiatives are ASEAN-led and aligned with both national and regional priorities, they must be designed and submitted in collaboration with relevant ASEAN Member State governments, ASEAN Centres and Facilities, or ASEAN Sectoral Bodies. Provided they are ASEAN-led/co-designed, applications are welcomed from New Zealand Crown entities, universities, economic development agencies, think tanks, and New Zealand-registered international non-government organisations with a dedicated strategic focus on the ASEAN Region.
If you are interested in applying, join one of our upcoming Information Webinars to learn more about the Fund, eligibility requirements, and application process.
Webinar 1: 16 July 2026 | 15:00 – 16:15 New Zealand time.
Register for Webinar 1(external link)
Webinar 2: 30 July 2026 | 15:00 – 16:15 New Zealand time.
Register for Webinar 2(external link)
For further information, please contact the Fund Management Team at info@asean-nzvisionfund.org.
Market reports released this week
A full list of global economic round-ups can be found here(external link)
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External links
The following links may provide useful information to businesses:
NZTE’s website(external link) and their myNZTE(external link) provides a range of insights and tools available to support New Zealand exporters.
The Treasury releases a weekly economic update(external link) every Friday. Stats NZ has published a data portal(external link) with near real-time economic indicators.
MBIE publishes a sector reports series(external link) which provides regularly updated reports on all industry sectors that make up the New Zealand economy. These include official economic data and the challenges and opportunities that face New Zealand’s industry sectors.
Business.govt.nz(external link) provides tools and advice from across government to save small businesses’ time and help make the business a success.
MFAT has created a tariff finder(external link) which is designed to help goods exporters and importers maximise benefits from New Zealand’s Free Trade Agreements and compare tariffs in 136 other markets.
The all of government Trade Barriers(external link) website can be used to register any trade barriers experienced or issues exporting to an offshore market. Queries can be sent via the website or through the MFAT Exporter Helpline 0800 824 605. Enquiries will be sent to the government agency best placed to answer.
Tatauranga Aotearoa Stats NZ provides official data on the value of New Zealand’s exports and imports of both goods and services, by commodity type via the New Zealand Trade Dashboard(external link). This interactive dashboard is updated every quarter and allows for filtering by country and by commodity type.
Learn more about exporting
New Zealand Trade & Enterprise’s comprehensive market guides(external link) cover export regulations, business culture, market-entry strategies and more.
Disclaimer
This information released in this report aligns with the provisions of the Official Information Act 1982. The opinions and analysis expressed in this report are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the views or official policy position of the New Zealand Government. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the New Zealand Government take no responsibility for the accuracy of this report.
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